Thursday, October 30, 2008

NBA Preview: Western Conference, Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks:
Rick Carlisle is in as head coach this season, which is a bit of a head scratcher. The knocks on Avery Johnson were his lack of communication with players (seemingly everyone said as much), his inability to loosen the reins on the offense (even after the Jason Kidd acquisition), and his inability to get along with owner Mark Cuban. Avery did a good job for two years with a very good team, but his team had clearly tuned him out by the time he was fired. The head-scratching part is that Carlisle has a reputation for not wanting much in the way of player input, and for meticulously controlled offenses. Hmm. However, things seem to be going well so far, so that could all be bunk. Regardless, chemistry will be better this year, without Avery and a looming and prolonged Kidd/Harris swap distracting, and this team still has much of the talent that took them to the finals in '05. Unfortunately, that talent is getting old, and that aforementioned trade didn't help that one bit. Personally, I'm not sure Kidd has much left in the tank, nor do I think he's a better point guard than Harris at this point in their relative careers. On the other hand, a change in style couldn't hurt this team: Josh Howards, he of the never-ending minor controversies, could really benefit from a looser, faster offensive approach, and Dirk was a happier and better player when he was getting off a few open threes a game trailing on the fast break, so both of the other top talents should be on board to run some. Kidd can still run a fast break, so look to see this team push the ball off rebounds, and maybe even off makes in the first half. I love the Stackman's toughness, and Jason Terry is a dirty little punk (in a goodish way), and Brandon Bass could be the next David West (slow, steady development, good work ethic, above-average athleticism) so this team still has some gritty/tough role players, and that will probably all add up to a decent season. sadly, the window on this team is probably already closed, because I don't think they match up well with any of the new elite teams in the west (Utah, New Orleans, Lakers), nor am I sure they can beat San Antonio or Phoenix in a series. The Mavs are the new poster-children for also-rans.

Houston Rockets:
I know how excited everyone is over the Rockets this year, and believe me, I want to join in, I really do. Tracy McGrady has been a personal favorite since this happened, probably because I was at home watching basketball this night (skip ahead to about 2:10), and then again for this game. I watched that last game to the very end, and I've never been better rewarded by a regular season sporting event. Is Tracy a flawed player? Yes, of course, sometimes painfully so, but his transition from prima donna scorer to permanent underdog has endeared him to me like no amount of success could have. I've watched this Rockets team very closely in the T-Mac era, and I agree that this is the best team they've had in recent years, but I have some major concerns about the structure of this team with new addition Ron Artest. Was it a necessary (two minutes in) move? Maybe. I like this take, which makes a good bit of sense. Ron's a phenomenal talent, and though his defense slipped in Sacramento, I think he'll be motivated to prove he's an all-league defender again. His effort notwithstanding, this team still has a problem on defense with Ron on the floor, and it's this: Shane Battier is too good for this team. He's a more reliable spot-up shooter, an equally excellent defender, and he knows and understands his role perfectly. The Rockets are a much better team with Battier on the floor than not, and you can't afford to reduce his minutes. Ron's not going to sit the majority of games either, obviously, and since they're both too big and handle-less to slide down to the two, the only option is to play one of them (probably Ron-Ron) at the power forward spot for stretches. I've no doubt Artest can lock down many of the league's fours when determined, but that's not the problem. Who's going to rebound? Battier and Artest are both average rebounders for their position (small forward), but at the four, either would be well below average. With injury-prone Yao as the only legit center on the Houston roster, this team could already be undersized on many nights, and even though all those undersized fours are good soldiers on the glass (I'm looking at you, Carluis Scolandry, Chuck Wagon), this team, which was a great defensive team again last season, gives up too much size in the frontcourt. Limiting second chance baskets is such a huge part of great defenses, and this new Rockets roster may have that as a primary weakness. Think I've ragged on the Artest acquisition enough? Then avert your eyes, because we should talk about the offense. Ron Artest, for all his many gifts, is not an efficient offensive player. For his career, he's a 42% shooter from the field, and a 33% shooter from beyond the arc, which hasn't prevented him from taking over 200 long bombs a year for each of his last five full seasons. These numbers are pretty dismal for a player who fancies himself a scorer but doesn't get to the free throw line with the regularity of an Iverson type. And yes, he averaged 20 points per game last year with Sacto, but all the numbers mean is that it took him more shots, and more possessions, than almost any other 20 ppg player in the league last season. On a team like Houston, that already has two more efficient scorers, is that type of game going to help or hurt an offense? That's going to depend a great deal on how well Ron adapts his game. If he can make himself a decent spot-up shooter, he's going to be more effective, because the Tracy/Yao line-up creates a lot of open space on the perimeter. But with the ball, dribbling, trying to set people up, Artest will hurt the Rockets. The bright side to all of this is that, if (when) Tracy goes out of a few games, Ron can pick up the slack by being his volume shooter self, which at least gives the Rockets a chance to win on his good nights. The other bright side is that Tracy and Yao seem pleased to have him aboard, and team morale is high. Adelman is going to have to make it work, and he's the league's best bet for that with Artest. The other silver lining for this team is it's exceptional depth. Rafer Alston will be serviceable at the point, and back-up Aaron Brooks could provide some spark. Luther Head has been a useful player for this team in the past, and that front court group is as hard-nosed as they come. A near-definite fifty win team, with a ceiling around sixty, and I'm calling for a (finally) favorable first round match up in the playoffs this year.

Memphis Grizzlies:
I predict this team will be bad this year, and no, thank you but no, I deserve no medal for my bravery. Everyone knows this team will be bad, because they're young (so young), and they rely heavily on the interior defense of Darko Milicic. He's a shot blocker, sure, but not much else. Marc Gasol is your other big man, and though I like his size, and he seems active, he's probably a year or two from being a starter on a decent team. On the wings, Rudy Gay will score and excite, and OJ Mayo will shoot and miss, and shoot and make. He's going to shoot regardless of the outcome, I'm saying, and that kind of confidence should be a blessing on a team that will probably struggle to score enough to win many games, even with former D'Antoni first-mate Marc Iavaroni on the sidelines. The team should make some strides towards unraveling a snaggle of young point guards (Conley, Lowry, Crittenton), but it would really help if one of them could step forward this year, instead of wading around in the mediocrity pool as a group again, wearing floaties and having splash fights. I'm pulling for Lowry, personally, in terms of the on-court play, but I've got money on Crittenton in the splash fight.

New Orleans Hornets:
If you didn't watch much of Chris Paul last year, this may sound controversial, but it's really not: Chris Paul is the best point guard in the NBA. It's not even close, I promise. Steve Nash in 2006 gives him some competition for that title, but not the current version of Canada's favorite son, and not Deron Williams, who I love, and definitely not any of the Billups/Parker/Davis group. Paul runs this team like an all-time great entering his prime, which is exactly what he is. David West should take another small step forward this season (the guy's an offseason worker, no question), and the rest of this team is extremely solid. Chandler is a near all-star, and the perfect complement to Paul on both ends (great lob finisher, great at blocking shots when Paul gambles for a steal), and Peja is the floor spacer every great team needs in it's starting unit. He can carry this team for a quarter at a time if he's hot, and that's a huge asset from a third scorer. I've always loved Mo Pete, and not just because of this shot; if you can make this mix about your fifth best starter, your team is probably alright. James Posey will be great in New Orleans, defensively and as a threat you can't double off of down the stretch, and he's the guy you hate that champioship caliber teams always have. The bench is a little thin, though, for a team this good, with unproven big Hilton Armstrong first off the pine in the frontcourt, and questionable decision maker Mike James backing up Paul. Still, I think this team wins the west this year, I really do, beating out a stacked Lakers squad that will probably still knock these Hornets out of the playoffs.

San Antonio Spurs:
As a Suns fan, the Spurs have done very little over the last five years besides torment me, and win a few championships. Now, though, with this team beginning it's slip out of contention, I'm actually a little sad. I wanted to see the Spurs beaten, every year, on their terms, and that just didn't happen much this decade. I respected these jerks, and I respected them because many of them aren't jerks. You may hate the Tim Duncan face (I certainly do), and you may hate Robert Horry (so very much) and you must hate Bruce Bowen (easily the game's most despicably filthy player in my lifetime), but these guys are not bad guys off the court, and that made the hate a little purer, since it was just basketball. Except for Bowen, maybe, whose incredibly poor sportsmanship transcends even this type of thing, I wouldn't mind having these guys on my team. All that aside, we should talk about where this team is now, and if the end is really as nigh as that obituary makes it seem. The Spurs will still be good this year; really good, probably. Tim Duncan And Tony Parker are more than capable of picking up the scoring slack until Manu comes back (December, they think), and the supporting cast know their roles and buy into Popavich's system. That's a great recipe right there, one that wins a lot of games (I'm guessing a shade above 50), but the problems are post-season oriented. This team doesn't match up well against the new kids on the block (Lakers, Hornets), and I don't think a crafty and experienced roster will be enough to buy that edge back. You may be thinking at this point, "Hey, Nate. That sure sounds like a mix of bullheap and wishful thinking, and maybe you should remember that it's an odd year, and that Tim is still the league's best power forward, and Tony Parker keeps getting better, and Manu will wreck most teams when he's healthy, and shouldn't other teams be worrying about matching up with that? Plus, Popavich! You're terrible at this!" You probably went on, but I'm going to cut you off there, because you might be right. But man, Bruce Bowen sucks, doesn't he?

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

NBA Preview: Western Conference, Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors:
I had a scooter, a Honda Elite 80, and I loved that little guy, so I understand what happened to Monta Ellis. These headlines, however, have to be some of the funniest in recent NBA memory, even if the fallout is unfortunate. Without the speedy and high-flying Ellis (and departed free agent Baron Davis), Golden State is extremely thin at point guard, which isn't going to make Don Nelson happy once things get rolling. He's already admitted he doesn't much care for the youth movement, or this young roster in particular, and that could be a problem as the year rolls on. I was surprised to this week that he agreed to an extension, but he has earned it, whether you like his goofy lineup choices or his shoot first offensive schemes or not. Under Nelson, Baron Davis turned out two career seasons, as did left-for-dead Stephen Jackson, who has recovered nicely from numerous incidents in Indiana. Among the players who will suffer from the extended stay are Andris Biedrins and Ronny Turiaf, both of which would benefit from a more traditional lineup approach. Biedrins in particular could use some more time on the floor, where's he's improved consistently over the course of his career. I expect Stephen Jackson to slide down to the point guard spot, with Azubuike and Maggette on the wings, and for this team to struggle mightily. Maggette, on the other hand, will celebrate his newfound freedom by averaging career highs across the board. Keep an eye on young Brandan Wright, who could break in this year, and watch for the last chance of Marcus Williams, who can't afford to let this opportunity pass him by. I'd like to see this team play well this year, but I don't think it's gonna happen.

Los Angeles Clippers:
The Clippers are a strange team; not rebuilding, filled with veterans, very few role players or dirty workers, probably not making the playoffs--this is a bad combination in the NBA. I could be wrong, though, at least about the playoff thing, because if Baron Davis (graceful, charming, a little chubby sometimes) and Marcus Camby can stay healthy, and energize their teammates into playing over their heads on defense, then this team probably threatens to sneak in as the eight seed. The problem is, that last sentence sounded ridiculous even as I wrote it. Camby has averaged 58 games a year over the course of his career, and Baron Davis is only a little better at 67 games a year. The good news is that last year was a career year (in terms of health) for both players, when they combined to miss only 3 games between them. If they do go down for a stretch, though, it exposes this team's biggest weakness, which is its stunning lack of depth. Long forgotten Jason Hart will back up Davis, while shoot first, shoot later retreads Ricky Davis and Tim Thomas will get significant minutes for a team that will already struggle to find shots for all the principals. Besides Davis and Camby, who both consider themselves scorers, the talented and efficient Chris Kaman needs touches, and Cuttino Mobley is a little one dimensional (in favor of shooting, predictably) too. The team's primary young talent, rookie Eric Gordon is, well...I'll let David Thorpe tell it:
The Clippers will utilize this scoring dynamo off the bench. He looks similar to Ben Gordon, not just in size and position but in how he can impact games. While he often looks to shoot -- he is far from knowledgeable about the term "good shot" -- it is his slashing talent that could earn him a future Sixth Man award. He is tough to stay in front of, and has the strength to finish at the rim among bigs and contact.
Sigh. Sounds fun, really, on a different team, but this team is a bad home for this particular skill set. The Clippers might outscore some teams on some nights, but they won't out-work or out-hustle anybody, and that's the recipe for a losing record.

Los Angeles Lakers:
It's hard to root for a team that just manufactures drama on a national scale the way the Lakers do, but the recent Lamar Odom jabber won't affect this team's season aspirations in any significant way. This Lakers team is primed for another deep playoff run, and along the way they'll get to sort out some issues, and one of those is Odom. Most other teams would kill for a problem as simple as how to get more production from such a talented player in an already stacked lineup, but, well, this is LA, and these are the Lakers. The other one I'm sick of talking about is the Gasol/Bynum co-existence question, which will just have to sort itself out. I imagine it will, although Gasol's production may drop off a bit in the meantime, which will have more to do with sharing shots than with decreased efficiency. Kobe returns from the gold medal run with an awful lot of mileage on his legs in the last year, so hopefully Phil Jackson will convince him to limit himself a little, to scale back his involvement on offense a titch, and save a little something for spring. Cutting his minutes would certainly help, but in the thick of the season it's hard for competitors like Phil and Kobe to keep that perspective. Jordan Farmar gets a year older, but he'll split time with Derek Fisher, who is unfortunately also a year older. The Machine, though he's a (highly) questionable decision maker, will provide some scoring and grit off the bench, and Luke Walton is a useful player in spurts, but I expect Trevor Ariza to rise into the rotation, because he's a player who wants to be out there without the ball, and championship-caliber teams need those guys. I've got New Orleans nipping this team in the regular season, but the Lakers will be the toughest out in the western conference playoffs.

Phoenix Suns:
This may be the only team in the league I'm incapable of evaluating without a veneer of objectivity. Since Mike D'Antoni arrived in Phoenix, the Suns have been the joy of basketball personified for me. Unfortunately, those days are gone, as Terry Porter will preach defense and a much slower offensive approach. I suspect he'll even call plays from the sidelines, which actually makes me a little bit sad to think about. He is talking about holding Shaq out on the second night of back to backs, which will benefit both Shaq and Boris Diaw, who will finally need to find a way to be effective with Amare on the court. Diaw was always at his best alongside Marion in the frontcourt, where Diaw could work the high post and control the ball, but that's one of Amare's favorite spots too. Porter will probably make them share, and encourage Amare to work with his back to the basket more often, which sounds as boring as it is. Expect a number of awkward half hooks, a few of which will be followed by thunderous put back dunks. Really, I'm not fit to write any kind of review about this team, because anything I come up with is going to come out like a eulogy. Matt Barnes was a good pick-up, Nash, though he's on the decline, will still be very, very good, and Amare will have an excellent season. I hope Grant Hill stays healthy, I doubt Shaq will, and the Suns win, say, 49 games. I loved him as a player, and then as an analyst, but I loathe him as an executive. Sorry this one doesn't have links, but I'm not ready to watch old highlights yet.

Sacramento Kings:
The Kings finally kicked off the rebuilding process last season by moving Mike Bibby to the Hawks, and then Ron Artest to the Rockets in the off-season. Not much came back from these deals in terms of useful parts, but future flexibility is what this team needed, with the side story being a change in identity. Head coach Reggie Theus came off like an idiot at the beginning of his first year by confusing Kevin Martin for chopped liver:

Theus said one of the first things he's going to do is meet with Ron Artest and Mike Bibby.

"I want to find out from them how we make this work since it's their team," Theus said. "I'm the leader, but it's their team. I remember as a pro myself that I always liked it when the coach came to me to talk about how we can make it work.

"Both players are high-caliber players, and at this point in their careers how much are they willing to sacrifice? But before that, we have to start out with an identity and play a certain style to be successful," Theus said.

It was obvious even then that Martin was the necessary focal point of this team's offense, but Theus appeared to be a less than casual observer of this team. Kevin Martin, for his part, responded by averaging close to 24 points a game while remaining one of the league's most efficient scorers, although his defensive struggles have a been both a personal and team weak spot. Expect improvement out of the hard-working Martin, and hope last year wasn't a fluke for Udrih. John Salmons can put up numbers for a losing team (which this one certainly will be), and place holders Brad Miller and Kenny Thomas will be painfully average. This team should look much different by next year's tip-off, so for now, just enjoy that funky-dope jumper, and keep a close on Udrih for slippage.

Monday, October 27, 2008

NBA Preview: Eastern Conference, Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks:
Al Horford, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, and Mike Bibby; that's a decent line-up, a playoff caliber line-up. Horford is a beast despite being a little undersized at the five, but this team will protect the rim regardless, thanks to Josh Smith being a load of fun. The Armadillo Cowboy should have a bounceback year after his percentages fell in the 07-08 campaign, because this team, with trigger-happy Mike Bibby and improving slasher Marvin Williams, will have plenty of scorers to keep defenses honest. With all this working in their favor, why oh why do I have them missing the playoffs? Well, this is a bad bench. A terrible bench. Acie Law, Flip Murray, and Zaza "Baby Helicopter" Pachulia will get minutes, substantial ones, and that hurts a team. No, I'm not ready to give up on Acie Law, and I remember when Ray Allen went down in Seattle and Flip Murray scored like a man possessed, but for opposite reasons, neither of those two are consistent contributors right now. Blowing contract talks with Josh Childress in the off-season will come back to haunt this team. The Hawks also have serious chemistry concerns, in part because there's only so many shots to go around, but also because they just started printing J-Smooth dollars by the bundle in Atlanta and he and coach Mike Woodson have had their share of disagreements over the last two years, although both seem to be saying the right things after a recent fracas. I think the Hawks, a team that absolutely backed into the playoffs last season, ends up on the outside looking in this year, despite their strong Celtics series that eventually kicked off their summer vacations.

Charlotte Bobcats:
The seemingly inevitable MJ and Larry Brown pairing has finally become reality, and so far it ain't working. Mind you, this is before a single regular season game has been played, but Brown has already rumbled about his lineup, which is a story as old as the sun, making it just a few years younger than Larry Brown himself. Specifically, he doesn't think Sean May can help right now, and he's almost certainly right. Of course, he brought this on himself, by lobbying hard (and successfully) for DJ Augustin in the draft this year, even though promising and large Brook Lopez fell into their laps. Instead, the Nets scooped him up, and the Bobcats got way shorter. Jordan has continued to strike out (boo) as a basketball executive, by having absolutely nothing in place behind May, and very little in the way of useful veterans around. That list begins and ends with Nazr Mohammed, but he's a role player, and even Brown seems reluctant to commit starter's minutes to him. The Bobcats have maybe the weakest frontcourt in the NBA entering this season, and that's with the solid if undersized Emeka Okafor. Gerald Wallace, who I just learned suffered through a case of explosive amnesia last season due to concussion, is back, and healthy, and fun, but he can't lug this team to victory, and neither can Jason Richardson. In fact, this team is chock-full of players who haven't been able to win on the NBA level, although I usually feel that's more a matter of situation than character. Nevertheless, Brown does have a history of making winners out of teams in the short term, and whatever roster problems he has in Charlotte are infinitely more fixable than the one he failed to manage in New York. This team is a few solid moves away, though, from a playoff berth, and the upper management hasn't done much since the birth of this franchise to inspire confidence that those moves will happen.

Miami Heat:
Dwayne Wade is back to his old self, and that is great news if you're a Heat fan. This roster, although it's got some nice pieces, is a bit of a mess. Still, I can't see a healthy and extremely motivated Dwayne Wade missing the playoffs, and this may be a case where Wade sneaks into the MVP conversation if the Heat can get any kind of team thing going. It won't be easy, though, with Chris Quinn: Medicine Man and Mario "it wasn't me" Chalmers setting up the offense. This is the league's worst point guard tandem, but it doesn't stop there: the Heat will also roll out a terrible Center rotation every night. Mark Blount and (shudder) Jamal Magloire are awful options, but that's what new coach Eric Spoelstra will have to work with. It's hard to believe a team with four players that bad receiving minutes every night could finish at or even above .500, but then again, they have Dwayne Wade healthy and angry. Moving an undersized but gritty Udonis Haslem to the five could ease that pain a little, and get your four best players on the floor at once, but we're not exactly sure what type of coach Spoelstra is yet. Michael Busley Beasley should do some interesting work this year, and The Matrix has long been a personal favorite, although I see him as a likely candidate for odd man out on the offensive end, a role he's never handled well in the past; I liked this team a lot more before James Jones got hurt, but if he's back by December, this team will still have time to gel and make a run, or ship out some of those pieces (Marion or Haslem) for legit 1's or 5's. Either way, I look forward to watching the Olympic version of Wade for a full season, even if he has to ease off the throttle a little to keep his legs for 40 minutes a night.

Orlando Magic:
The Magic need Hedo Turkoglu to play that well again this season, or they turn into an also-ran that just happens to feature Dwight Howard. Dwight's a hell of a player, a terrifying monster on the boards and an intimidating rim protector, but he hasn't developed the post game that would allow Stan Van Gundy to build this offense around him. At least, he didn't have it last year, and I doubt he managed to squeeze that work in around a hectic olympic schedule and general conditioning work. That's why Hedo needs to be above average again this year; to keep taking pressure off, to confound defensive schemes designed to keep Dwight from getting the ball in dunking range, and to set up Rashard Lewis and newcomer Mickael Pietrus. That would be enough to make this team solid, but to really threaten in a (glad I can say this again) competitive Eastern conference, Rashard Lewis needs to assert himself the way he did in Seattle, and I think that's pretty likely. He's not worth that contract, of course, but he is a good offensive player entering his athletic prime, and Van Gundy may look to feature him a little more this year. I'm tempted to say that their success will also hinge on Jameer Nelson's growing up and into his role as a confident floor leader, but I've thought that the last few years too, and I'm bored with it. I like Courtney Lee, although he's a stretch to contribute this season, and Tony Battie might still be solid, and Adonal Foyle, is, well, a poet.

Washington Wizards:
The internet's favorite team (and the league's best covered locker room) is up for another frustrating, injury-cursed season in 08-09, but you just can't give up hope that Agent Zero gets his body right again, because he's just too much fun on the court. That said, the Wizards have proven themselves to be a playoff caliber team without him, and I think they repeat that feat this year even without the much improved (but injured) Brendan Haywood clogging the lane. Etan Thomas will be back and in shape this year, and he'll soak up some minutes, but how good this team can be will depend on the consistency of production from youngster Dre Blatche, who will apparently see time at the center this year. He could use some bulking up, sure, but he's a talented young player in a good atmosphere, and he may use this opportunity to break in and establish himself right now. Caron Butler stepped way up last year, and that was no fluke; the super consistent Antawn Jamison will keep providing solid minutes on both ends. The great thing about Jamison is the way he scores; watch him for a quarter or two, and you'll probably catch him squirting up a strange seeming shot or three that just finds the net on its own. DeShawn "Mr. Fifty" Stevenson and Antonio Daniels round out the starting lineup, but their depth is really hurt by their injuries, and by the loss of Roger Mason. Nick Young will have to improve his production this season for this team's second unit to stay productive. Hustle back, Hibachi.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

NBA Previews: Eastern Conference, Central Division

Chicago Bulls:
Derrick Rose scored thirty points in a preseason comeback against Dallas last week, and it changed the way I'll watch the Bulls this year. He did the majority of his work in that game in the 4th quarter, with a series of explosive drives, nice finishes, and floaters just outside the paint (watch that here). He has shown flashes, already, of being an all-star caliber player, and in my haste to defend my now fragile heart from disappointment, I've been reminding myself daily that point guards, even the best of them, take time to develop. I thought about Deron Williams' rookie season, and how he seemed to undulate between decent and lost on the floor, and how he found his game in his second season, and how patience would be key in watching Rose and the Bulls struggle to find an identity. But you know what? Forget it. Rose will make some mistakes, sure, but he'll also make some grown men look foolish out there, because he's a dazzling NBA talent right now. I've been whining about the fact that this will be (essentially) our tenth straight rebuilding year, but the truth is that Rose will eventually be the best player we've had in the post Jordan era, our first A.J. all-star, and I get to watch him play all the time. To alleviate any further fears that Rose will be unable to contribute as a rookie and a point guard, here's a quick list of some of the point guards taken with a top five draft pick in the last ten years, and how their rookie years looked on paper.

  • Michael Conley (drafted 4th overall, 2007) 9.4 ppg, 4.2 apg, 2.6 rpg
  • Deron Williams (drafted 3rd overall, 2005) 15.3 ppg, 8.1 apg, 2.1 rpg
  • Chris Paul (drafted 4th overall, 2005) 18.5 ppg, 9.5 apg, 4.5 rpg
  • Raymond Felton (drafted 5th overall, 2005) 13.4 ppg, 6.6 apg, 3.2 rpg
  • Shaun Livingston (drafted 4th overall, 2004) 7.4 ppg, 4.8 apg, 3.1 rpg
  • Devin Harris (drafted 5th overall, 2004) 10 ppg, 3.7 apg, 2.2 rpg
  • Jay Williams (drafted 2nd overall, 2002) 9.5 ppg, 4.7 apg, 2.6 rpg
  • Baron Davis (drafted 3rd overall, 1999) 17.1 ppg, 7.2 apg, 4.1 rpg
  • Mike Bibby (drafted 2nd overall, 1998) 16.6 ppg, 6.2 apg, 3.3 rpg
I know those numbers (points, rebounds, assists) are a clunky way of measuring efficiency in this league because I'm a fan of the coming numbers revolution in basketball, but as a crude measure, they'll do for today. Rose is better right now than the rookie versions of Conley, Livingston, Felton, Harris, and Jay Williams, and I'd only hesitate to put him above Bibby because Bibby was a year older. I'd expect numbers similar to Deron Williams (who didn't struggle nearly as much I remembered, apparently) although I'm not sure the Bulls lend themselves to assist opportunites the way the Jazz of 05-06 did. Regardless, Rose will astound often this year, and we've lacked that player all throughout the Paxson era.
As for the rest of the Bulls, I'm high on Noah, Ty Thomas, Ben Gordon, and Luol Deng, and low on Nocioni and Drew Gooden (neither of whom understand their own skills), and through the basement on Larry Hughes. I've been a Thabo supporter in the past, but he's turning into a bit of a chucker as well, which doesn't play to his skills (defense and...defense?), and Hinrich, well...that's tough. On this page, you'll see the experts at ESPN call him "the league's most underrated" point guard, and that was only last year. It's hard to imagine his skills eroding that quickly and inexplicably, so the problem has to be mental, right? A change of scenery might be best at this point. The jury is still out on Vinny from Black, who got off to a bad start with me just by not being Mike D'Antoni. Okay, yeah, I've got the Bulls in at the tenth slot in the East, and missing the playoffs, but secretly? You know that I think they're the 8th seed, which is a fair indication of how far we fell last year. This time last year, I had them in for a conservative 50 win season.

Cleveland Cavaliers:
Lebron James believes this is the best team assembled during his time in Cleveland, and I'm inclined to agree, but how much is that saying, really? The Mike Brown Cavs have been, when James is off the floor, one of (if not the most) unwatchable team in the league. Thankfully, James hardly ever sits down, and that rarely seems to affect him. No doubt about it: this will be a ridiculous Lebron James year, one in which he will clearly be the game's most dominant force. It's hard to bet against that, but I've got them at 4, so I guess I did to some extent. Ilgauskas has been a nice piece for them for a while, but he's got a lot of mileage on a pretty ridiculous frame, and I'm not convinced he matches last year's production. I like Varejao as a good team's third big men, so that checks out okay, but Wallace is a millstone at the power forward, both on your payroll and your offensive efficiency. I loved Detroit's Ben Wallace for being so great despite being so flawed, but it was clear in Chicago that he isn't that player anymore, no matter what Chauncey Billups says. The Cavs appear to be sky-high on Darnell Jackson, but I doubt he'll be ready to step in and play big minutes in his rookie season. Pavlovic and West are absolutely average at the two, and Daniel Gibson will drive you nuts with his inconsistency, but all those players would benefit from more open floor basketball. Enter Mo Williams, the Cavs fancy new point guard, who is the only thing that makes this team better than the previous incarnations. Williams is a gunner, but he shouldn't have any problems deferring to James, who will do the majority of the playmaking on this team anyway, and he gives the Cavs something critical: a player who can beat his man on the perimeter. James hasn't played with a single of those on the NBA level, and Mo's ability to unsettle defenses and cause some havoc with the ball will allow Lebron to catch the ball on the move occasionally, without the defense set, and that should do wonders for his ability to get clean looks moving towards the hoop. This is a really, really mediocre team, above average at only 2 positions (apologies to an aging big Z), that might still end up in the finals, and that right there is the terrifying skill of Lebron James.

Detroit Pistons:
I've got the relatively uninteresting Pistons holding steady at number two in the east. I flirted briefly and awkwardly with the idea of moving them into the first slot, but mostly on the hunch that Boston fails to stay healthy for a full season. In the end, it seemed like a silly thing to guess at, since Detroit houses its own fair share of aging veterans. The Pistons return with the same core for the new season that failed to reach the Finals in the last few go rounds, despite plenty of speculation that GM Joe Dumars would finally blow this thing up. He didn't, and this was probably a wise move, since this team still harbors legitimate title dreams. The best part of having such a competent GM, though, is that even as the window on this starting unit is closing, the second unit is chock full of talented young players to surround Tayshaun Prince with when the time comes to rebuild. Rare is the team that can reload for the future without sinking into the lottery for a couple years, but early indications seem to suggest that the Pistons are that team. Keep an eye on Stuckey and Maxiell in particular. I think moving McDyess back to the bench in favor of Amir Johnson will pay dividends for this team, and I also expect this team to benefit from the fresh blood infusion of new head coach Michael Curry, even though I'm inclined to agree with Kelly Dwyer about Flip Saunders. Regardless, as long as things are going well, this is a team with good chemistry and talented players, and if they roll at the right time, it's easy to imagine this team back in the finals.

Indiana Pacers:
I'd always held a hope in my heart that TJ Ford would get dealt to Phoenix (this was, of course, before Phoenix got ruined) while Nash was still there, and maybe pick up or pointer or two, while becoming the future point guard of the NBA's premier run n' fun team. Obviously, Ford is not Steve Nash, nor will he ever be, but his blazing speed and creativity would have made him an appealing (and, because of his injury history, affordable) option to keep Marion and Amare in the open court through 2012 or so. Obviously, that isn't happening, but Jim O'Brien's first-to-120-wins gameplan could be the next best thing for Ford fans. Ford's only real strengths are his ability to penetrate, and his ability to push the ball and create fast breaks, and this team's many three point chuckers should benefit from that, either on fades on the break or on drive and kick sets in the halfcourt. Troy Murphy, particularly, is a pretty one dimensional player offensively who could see an increased role as a floor spacer. If Danny Granger can continue to improve, and Mike Dunleavy Jr. can repeat last year's "maybe I'm not such a huge bust after all" performance, this team could make a surprise run at the playoffs. Unfortunately for my neighbors to the east, I'm not sure how likely those things are. I suspect Granger has peaked, or pulled close to it, and while he may not be an all-star talent, a versatile scorer and above average defender is nothing to turn your nose up at. I hope I'm wrong, and his ceiling is still a ways up, but time's gonna have to tell on that one. Jarret Jack will make a solid back-up for the injury-prone Ford, and I've heard word that Marquis Daniels showed up to camp with a jumper this year, which would make him a serviceable player. I like the finally post-brawl Pacers in spite of their parts, really, though they're a long shot to make any noise in the east.

Milwaukee Bucks:
When Scott Skiles is back in the United Center for the Bulls home opener, I'm going to feel a little nostalgic. Yeah, the team tuned him out, and he jerked the young guys around more than was fair or effective, but he brought a defensive attitude to those Bulls' teams that had them among the league's most efficient stoppers. In Milwaukee, Skiles will start and end his game plan with defense again, but I'm not sure he'll have much success with his current roster. While the Bucks boast a few nice pieces, they also start three terrible defenders: Redd, Ridnour, and Villanueva. Jefferson can be an above average defender when motivated, and I suspect the same is true of Bogut, but even a motivated Ridnour isn't stopping many of this league's starting point guards, and Michael Redd tends to play soft against opposing scorers, even though he has the size to (theoretically) match up. Skiles could surprise again, of course, and prove that defense, even on the NBA level, is a matter of effort and focus, but I doubt that's what we'll see from this Bucks squad. On offense, I expect to Bogut to improve, and Villanueva to contribute from all over, and Michael Redd to fling at a decent percentage, but Richard Jefferson could be unhappy with his role. He played third fiddle to Carter and Kidd in Jersey like a good soldier, but this team has a lot of guys who want their shots, and none of them are appreciably more talented than RJ. I expect this team to lose a bunch this year, and maybe swing a few deals to put together a more complementary team. In the meantime, I know I'm not alone when I call for guaranteed minutes for last year's late-season surprise Ramon Sessions, at least to see what the youngster is capable of in the long haul.

Friday, October 24, 2008

NBA Previews: Eastern Conference, Atlantic Division

Making predictions on basketball, can, on the surface, feel like gambling. You guess at a number of wins based on past returns, and potential improvements, you make some safe picks, pick a few longshots, and let 'em run. Of course it's more complicated than that, but it could feel like gambling if somebody just asked you on the street.
It can also feel like a science, with the theories, and then the experiments, and then the analysis, but I'm out of my league there. It's been a while since I took any kind of science class, but aren't theories already a little more refined than educated guesses? And theoretically (ha), theories can become laws, right? Your predictions sure aren't physical laws as I understand them, because even if you are exactly right, you didn't learn anything concrete that will guarantee correctness on all future predictions. If any of that is true, then predictions as theories doesn't really work either.
Making predictions has always felt, to me at least, more like writing fiction than anything else. The characters are real, and it's probabilistic, to some degree, but it's a fiction nonetheless, because you had to write a little story, a story that seemed likely to you, about what might happen. And if those things happen as you imagined them, then it may not seem like fiction, but it becomes really obvious when you've made a really poor prediction. You imagined a series of events that never happened, and sometimes, at least in my case, in a very detailed way. Conversations that never happened, gut-checks that never happened, motivation that was never felt, and friendships or bonds that were never forged. That may seem a little personal for basketball predictions, but who saw Avery Johnson's firing as Mav's head coach coming? He failed, as I understand it, to earn the trust of those players and his owner, and that's a personal thing (and, also, a common thing). But we try to predict these things anyway, because, well, it's a blast. If you love writing stories, how could you not love making sports predictions? The level of nuance you can choose to include is limitless, and the characters are strange and compelling, and then you get to watch it all play out. On top of the joy of imagination exercised, you also get to be right sometimes, and who doesn't love 'I told you so's? These are not too terribly detailed, but there are a lot of them, and I think they go a little ways towards explaining my predictions.
We'll start like the sun.

Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics:
I have Boston finishing first in the East again this season because I don't think the drop-off of the older veterans will exceed the improvement of the quality youth. Rajon Rondo was good last year in all the ways he needed to be, and I expect him to take another step forward this year. KG is a candidate for drop-off or injury, but I think he's got at least one more season like last year in him, and his low (for him) rebounding rates will be made up for by the continued development of Kendrick Perkins. I think Jesus Shuttlesworth They'll miss Posey in the locker room, but loud alien Sam Cassell will pick up that slack. They'll miss Posey more in the post-season, but that's none of my business really. We'll cross our playoff bridges some other day. Jesus Shuttlesworth will probably be as good or better than he was last year, but mostly because he struggled so frequently as the third option last year, and with the decline in his athleticism. He's a smart player, though, and he wants to win, so I think he makes the right adjustments this year to be a versatile role player and third scorer. And, just like last year, Rondo will be more important to the team's success, regardless of the "big three" hogwash. It would be a nice bonus if Chicago native Tony Allen got the spring in his step back this year after a bad and pretty dumb injury two years ago. Look for quiet improvement from Big Baby Davis, and hopefully a little more run from Leon Powe. Thus far, I do not like Bill Walker, who seems a bit of a jerk. Also, if you're a basketball nerd or a Celtics fan, this is great. I recommend Swear to God, which is a classic.

New Jersey Nets:
I've got this team slotted at 14th in the East, with maybe 25 wins, but it's just hard to say. There are an awful lot of unknowns on this team, but not enough talent. How good is The Chairman? How many future all-stars get traded after their rookie year? Will Vince Carter stay healthy and/or care? Can Bobby Simmons be the player he was with the Clippers a few years back? I was high on him when the Bucks gave him that last contract, and he played me (and them) for a fool by not meshing one bit with a bad Bucks team. How good can Devin Harris be when he's the boss on the floor? Is Brook Lopez a starting caliber center? I think the Nets are going to be terrible, but I'm still going to watch this team, because that's a lot of questions for one paragraph. I hope Sean "Area 51" Williams gets a little burn this year, and the Stro-show has always been a household favorite, no matter how NBA irrelevant he's been. My two predictions I'm sure of? High Socks All-Star Keith Van Horn never plays another basketball game, and I'll watch this video three more times before opening day.

New York Knicks:
As a Bulls fan, I've got a lot to thank the Isaiah-era Knicks for; enough that somebody's got a blog named for it, with some excellent Bulls chatter besides. But this is a new era, a Donnie Walsh-y era, and these guys managed to get us back for a few years of trade muggings by stealing the coach we needed out from under us. Yep, Mike D'antoni is the Knicks coach now, and he'll try to work his offensive magic on a team with unwanted (former) Bulls back-up point guard Chris Duhon as his starter. I've seen an awful lot of Duhon, and it wasn't pretty. I don't want to bash him, really, he was mostly serviceable, but he'll struggle to run this team, or shoot well enough to demand even a fraction of the attention Steve Nash required defensively, which was a key factor in that beautiful (now dead) Pheonix offense. What you can get out of Marbury is anybody's guess, but I'm personally inclined to agree with Henry Abbott. Jamal Crawford has struggled in the preseason despite being the most logical beneficiary of the run/gun style, and Zach Randolph is, well, still Zach Randolph. His numbers should improve, maybe dramatically, but he won't help your team win. One upside of the D'Antoni regime is that the cream should rise to the top, primarily because he didn't bring these guys in, and he hasn't promised them anything in the way of minutes or roles. If that holds true, David Lee fans can finally sleep easier, knowing that he'll finally get a chance to showcase the athleticism and work ethic that should have distinguished him in the Thomas era. Hopefully Lee gets run at the 5, because Eddy "Don't let me drive to my donut hand side" Curry and Jerome "obvious buffet joke" James may be the saddest center tandem in the league. I'm keeping an interested eye on Danilo Galinari, and maybe you should too, if only he could get healthy.

Philadelphia 76ers:
As this year's crush team in the east, Philly cruised all the way up to the third seed in the East for me, but that could be 80% wishful thinking. This team could be an absolute blast to watch, something akin to the last few Golden State incarnations. Elton Brand becomes the first option in the halfcourt, and the excellent defensive rebounder running teams need to start the break. Andre Miller should be in his element pushing the ball, and the high expectations for this team eliminates fears of an unmotivated season filled with conditioning problems. Another year of development for Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams is nothing to sneer at, and if Haitian sensation Sam Dalembert (good guy alert, remote control car alert) can live up to the standards of an excellent 07-08 season, then I love this team, and that's before mentioning swing star Andre Iguodala. Personally, I'm inclined to believe Iggy has peaked already, but plenty of smart people would disagree with me about that, so we'll just have to see. Don't get me wrong, I like his game now: he knows how to use his athleticism in the open floor, and he's a great defender for a running team, because he's got the quickness and tenacity to force turnovers and affect another team's game plan. Plus, this was pretty nice. His only real weakness, unfortunately, is the same as the rest of his team's: inconsistent outside shooting. This team is one deadline deal away from contender status, as long as they can find a shooter to stretch the floor. This team may have bumped now depressing Phoenix from pole position in my League Pass hierarchy, and we'll have to see if they can hold that interest. Here's hoping.

Toronto Raptors:
Good gravy, does that second unit look terrible. I hadn't thought about it until I read this (via truehoop), but it cost Toronto the 4th seed in my rankings. Ukic, Adams, Humphries, Bargnani...the problem is they're all potentially the problem. Still, I've got them at 5, because that's how much I'm looking forward to a full season of Jose Calderon: starter. I loved the Jermaine O'Neal trade for this team, and for Chris-Bosh in particular, who's also coming off a great Olympic run. Big year out of him, I'd wager, with O'Neal sharing some of the abuse, and doing a little of the banging Bargs wouldn't do. If JO gets hurt (okay, when he gets hurt), you're back where you started, but maybe Andrea has improved, like this preseason seems to show, and you weather the storm. I love Jamario Moon (who doesn't?), but his defensive prowess and athleticism are balanced by his limited offensive game, and ultimately what you have is a solid starter. The lesser Parker sibling probably wouldn't start for most teams, but he works hard, and he hits open shots, and this team needs him (and Kapono) to spread the floor for Bosh, and to give Calderon some kickout options off penetration. JO isn't the player he was 4 or 5 years ago, but he doesn't need to be. Goodnight Moon.

Saturday we'll take on the Central Division, and our (admitted) Bully bias.

08-09 NBA Predictions vol. 1

These are my picks for this basketball season, and I'm now forced to stand by them. My analysis will follow in a moment, and later we'll get some other, wiser predictions in. Bash away in the comments, doubters.

Eastern Conference

Making the playoffs, in this order:

Boston Celtics
Detroit Pistons
Philidelphia 76ers
Cleveland Cavaliers
Orlando Magic
Toronto Raptors
Miami Heat
Washington Wizards

Just missing:

Atlanta Hawks
Chicago Bulls
Indiana Pacers

Just bad:

Charlotte Bobcats
Milwaukee Bucks
New Jersey Nets
New York Knicks

Western Conference
Making the playoffs, in this order:

New Orleans Hornets
LA Lakers
Utah Jazz
Houston Rockets
San Antonio Spurs
Phoenix Suns
Dallas Mavericks
Denver Nuggets

Just missing:

Portland Trailblazers

Just Bad:

Sacramento Kings
Golden State Warriors
LA Clippers
Memphis
Minnesota
Oklahoma City

Awards

MVP: Chris Paul
Runner Up: Lebron James

Rookie of the Year: Greg Oden
Runner Up: Michael Beasley

Most Improved Player: Ronnie Brewer
Runner Up: Tyrus Thomas

6th Man: Andrei Kirilenko
Runner Up: James Posey

Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard
Runner Up: Kevin Garnett

Coach: Maurice Cheeks
Runner Up: Jerry Sloan

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Comics? We talkin' 'bout comics?

In other, slighter comic news, Achewood was particularly good today. Oh, and Chris Onstad will be at Quimby's November sixth. If you like things that are the best, you should check that out.

Get Your Comic On

I'll be at the Windy City Comicon this Saturday, which is organized by these excellent peoples, and will feature some cool guests. You should go.


UPDATE: I'm not having any luck with their website, so here is a little additional information. 10am-6pm, October 25th, at the Center on Halsted.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Hypeman

Oh my goodness, ladies and gentletypes, it is that time. NBA basketball kicks off in one week, and to get us in the mode, this is NBA preview week at the clinch. We're going to talk so much talk, and walk so much walk, and ultimately look like fools. And, for the first time, the we in that last sentence is not royal. We're going to hear from a few guests, and get their equally asinine predictions, and we'll probably have some other fun as well. Drop by, won't you? Unless you hate the hoop (really? Is that even possible?). In that case, I'll see you in a week.

UPDATE: Wow, I just watched all those linked videos in their entirety. I had that video when I was a kid, and I wore it out. I still knew the words to all those songs, even the Patti LaBelle. Yeah. It's good to know that even in the early 90's, the NBA suffered from a very serious identity crisis. How many people who liked Glenn Frey were buying NBA highlight tapes? Glenn Frey looks like this. Sure, he dresses like Craig Sager, but that's where the relationship to basketball and it's fans end. At one point, the tape transitions about as jarringly as you would imagine from Wreckx-N-Effect (yes, that's the correct spelling) to Steely Dan, and 11 year-old me hated that Reelin' in the Years business.

Anyway, if you've got a few minutes to kill, and if you thought 1993 was the peak of the NBA's golden age, then these videos are for you. Or, if you like to laugh about the early 90's. Or, alternately, if you love Heavy D and Biggie Smalls together, or Bell Biv Devoe in their prime, or a rarely heard Eric B and Rakim track about basketball. Also: the smooth licks of Steely Dan, and the Magic/Bird lovefest montage to end all Magic/Bird lovefest montages.

Enjoy.

Friday, October 17, 2008

This Our Internet

The facts are certainly on my side here, so I say this boldly and with confidence: the internet can be pretty great. Sure, it can be a strange place with some dark corners (youtube comment threads are generally a mental cesspool), but that's the nature of places, really. No medium of cultural dissemination has grown this wild and unstructured since the early and unregulated days of radio, and, although I was about negative sixty years old when that was happening, I suspect that the proliferation of the internet has been even wilder. And because there are so many great things out there, and we're all here, anyway, we might as well share what we find. I'll toss out a link on this bliggity blog approximately whenever I feel like it, and feel free to send me anything you find that's great. Here's a few old favorites to get you started, and you can pick and choose based on your interests. The theme today is music. Music...in video format. A few of these have some salty language, which get the customary "nsfw" tag. You've been warned.

Hilarious fictionalized history of a bygone musical era? Yacht Rock. (nsfw)
Beautiful music made with a game boy? David E Sugar. (Bonus awesome stop-motion animation)
Mocking an A-ha video, making it better. Take On Me, the definitive version.
American history, Brad Neely style: JFK. (nsfw)
Ever wish life was more like musical theater? Prangstgrup has your back.


If you've got your own favorites on this theme, I encourage you to hit the comments, with gusto.


Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Oh, Come On Now

Oh no he di'n't.

This is Your Birthday Pony

My birthday is this week, and, while I'm not one for celebrating overmuch, it does seem like a good time to reflect on the happenings of the past year. It's a wistful season, fall, and I'm at home in it, be-sweatered and nostalgic and optimistic, slightly, in spite of everything. I thought, on this quiet Tuesday evening, we might briefly chronicle a series of mishaps that spread themselves out across the last twelve months or so, but remain lodged in my memory as much for the frustration they produce as their frequency. And so, then, here is this: a comprehensive list of the things I dropped peanut butter toast on in my 25th year on earth. I have placed an asterisk next to those things on which a slice of toast landed exciting side down.

Laptop (2x)
Bed*
Stapler*
Boxer Shorts
Garbage Can*
Plate (This was the best one)
Rabbit* (This was the saddest one)
Foot*

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

The Unity of Narrative, Knowledge

Ok, we're back. Loooong delay, of course, because, well...I guess that's hard to explain. Maybe it shouldn't be, but language is part of the problem here. Get ready for an obnoxiously meta post, or just bail on out. No, it's fine. I'm not mad.
The first problem is that this blog needs a subject, and what we have instead is an abundance of passions. My loves in this world are many, and varied, and there's just not much of an audience for non-specialized prattle. All of my favorite blogs are about specific things, things those bloggers know a great deal about, or have a peculiar gift for analyzing. Me? Oh, I guess I'm a Jack of a few trades, but I'm certainly a master of none. I do love books, and comics, and basketball, and video games, and baseball, and movies, and board games, and probably, above all, stories and their telling, and how, you're wondering, does that make me unique? It doesn't, and I wouldn't pretend otherwise. But I love them all, and maybe in such a way that I could tie it all together. Dream, boy. Dream.
In the blogs linked to above, particularly in the sports and video games ones, the particular thing that drew me to them, and then got me addicted, was the author's vast range of knowledge, of reference area, and their willingness and ability to draw parallels between their areas of specialty, and their many other interests, which occasionally seem totally unrelated. It's often what makes the things we love great, whether we recognize it or not; our passions, no matter how trivial, become metaphors that give sense to the rest of our existence, and they become the lens through which we view our world, and strive, however vainly, to understand it. This expresses itself best, I think, in narratives, in stories, which brings us, limping, bored and confused, to our next point.
Consilience is an important concept to me, and that concept, for those of you reading this who have never been stuck, on, say, a train with me, is (very roughly) this: all of the knowledge out there is related, and relatable. Sounds pretty simple, right? And, in a round-about sort of way, we're actually back to addressing the original problem, which is what is this diggidy dang blog about, anyway? Narrative consilience, my friend, narrative consilience. Maybe. Hopefully. We've got a bunch of wrinkles to work out, like, I guess, how is it about narrative consilience when it's mostly about your basketball predictions for this year? And that, I don't know. We'll try to cover several other things, I promise. Patterns will unfold, and we'll all learn something important about how our cultural backdrop is knit. Give me time to work that out, maybe, and don't hesitate to take me to task whenever you like. Via email, where you won't hear me weeping. In the meantime, we will talk about, say, the video game NBA Showdown, and why I'm a socialist, or maybe play that game where you say "oh, so and so? He/she is totally the [x] of [y]." I once called Kelly Dwyer the Mark Eaton of blocking shots of basketball blogs, and if that made sense to you, you should see a doctor.

The second problem of this blog is the voice in which it is written, because I've never written a blog before, and I'm not sure how to go about it. I'm so late to this party, this blog party, that many of the party-starters have already left for bigger parties in posh mansions and the like, with enormous cadres of beautiful people draped across their successful shoulders like expensive furs. Me, I've got a bad back, and I'm a vegetarian besides, so I'll probably just hang here for a while, thanks. And maybe the writing style thing will just, you know, work itself out. Is bad metaphor still a functional writing style?