NBA Preview: Eastern Conference, Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks:
Al Horford, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, and Mike Bibby; that's a decent line-up, a playoff caliber line-up. Horford is a beast despite being a little undersized at the five, but this team will protect the rim regardless, thanks to Josh Smith being a load of fun. The Armadillo Cowboy should have a bounceback year after his percentages fell in the 07-08 campaign, because this team, with trigger-happy Mike Bibby and improving slasher Marvin Williams, will have plenty of scorers to keep defenses honest. With all this working in their favor, why oh why do I have them missing the playoffs? Well, this is a bad bench. A terrible bench. Acie Law, Flip Murray, and Zaza "Baby Helicopter" Pachulia will get minutes, substantial ones, and that hurts a team. No, I'm not ready to give up on Acie Law, and I remember when Ray Allen went down in Seattle and Flip Murray scored like a man possessed, but for opposite reasons, neither of those two are consistent contributors right now. Blowing contract talks with Josh Childress in the off-season will come back to haunt this team. The Hawks also have serious chemistry concerns, in part because there's only so many shots to go around, but also because they just started printing J-Smooth dollars by the bundle in Atlanta and he and coach Mike Woodson have had their share of disagreements over the last two years, although both seem to be saying the right things after a recent fracas. I think the Hawks, a team that absolutely backed into the playoffs last season, ends up on the outside looking in this year, despite their strong Celtics series that eventually kicked off their summer vacations.

Charlotte Bobcats:
The seemingly inevitable MJ and Larry Brown pairing has finally become reality, and so far it ain't working. Mind you, this is before a single regular season game has been played, but Brown has already rumbled about his lineup, which is a story as old as the sun, making it just a few years younger than Larry Brown himself. Specifically, he doesn't think Sean May can help right now, and he's almost certainly right. Of course, he brought this on himself, by lobbying hard (and successfully) for DJ Augustin in the draft this year, even though promising and large Brook Lopez fell into their laps. Instead, the Nets scooped him up, and the Bobcats got way shorter. Jordan has continued to strike out (boo) as a basketball executive, by having absolutely nothing in place behind May, and very little in the way of useful veterans around. That list begins and ends with Nazr Mohammed, but he's a role player, and even Brown seems reluctant to commit starter's minutes to him. The Bobcats have maybe the weakest frontcourt in the NBA entering this season, and that's with the solid if undersized Emeka Okafor. Gerald Wallace, who I just learned suffered through a case of explosive amnesia last season due to concussion, is back, and healthy, and fun, but he can't lug this team to victory, and neither can Jason Richardson. In fact, this team is chock-full of players who haven't been able to win on the NBA level, although I usually feel that's more a matter of situation than character. Nevertheless, Brown does have a history of making winners out of teams in the short term, and whatever roster problems he has in Charlotte are infinitely more fixable than the one he failed to manage in New York. This team is a few solid moves away, though, from a playoff berth, and the upper management hasn't done much since the birth of this franchise to inspire confidence that those moves will happen.

Miami Heat:
Dwayne Wade is back to his old self, and that is great news if you're a Heat fan. This roster, although it's got some nice pieces, is a bit of a mess. Still, I can't see a healthy and extremely motivated Dwayne Wade missing the playoffs, and this may be a case where Wade sneaks into the MVP conversation if the Heat can get any kind of team thing going. It won't be easy, though, with Chris Quinn: Medicine Man and Mario "it wasn't me" Chalmers setting up the offense. This is the league's worst point guard tandem, but it doesn't stop there: the Heat will also roll out a terrible Center rotation every night. Mark Blount and (shudder) Jamal Magloire are awful options, but that's what new coach Eric Spoelstra will have to work with. It's hard to believe a team with four players that bad receiving minutes every night could finish at or even above .500, but then again, they have Dwayne Wade healthy and angry. Moving an undersized but gritty Udonis Haslem to the five could ease that pain a little, and get your four best players on the floor at once, but we're not exactly sure what type of coach Spoelstra is yet. Michael Busley Beasley should do some interesting work this year, and The Matrix has long been a personal favorite, although I see him as a likely candidate for odd man out on the offensive end, a role he's never handled well in the past; I liked this team a lot more before James Jones got hurt, but if he's back by December, this team will still have time to gel and make a run, or ship out some of those pieces (Marion or Haslem) for legit 1's or 5's. Either way, I look forward to watching the Olympic version of Wade for a full season, even if he has to ease off the throttle a little to keep his legs for 40 minutes a night.

Orlando Magic:
The Magic need Hedo Turkoglu to play that well again this season, or they turn into an also-ran that just happens to feature Dwight Howard. Dwight's a hell of a player, a terrifying monster on the boards and an intimidating rim protector, but he hasn't developed the post game that would allow Stan Van Gundy to build this offense around him. At least, he didn't have it last year, and I doubt he managed to squeeze that work in around a hectic olympic schedule and general conditioning work. That's why Hedo needs to be above average again this year; to keep taking pressure off, to confound defensive schemes designed to keep Dwight from getting the ball in dunking range, and to set up Rashard Lewis and newcomer Mickael Pietrus. That would be enough to make this team solid, but to really threaten in a (glad I can say this again) competitive Eastern conference, Rashard Lewis needs to assert himself the way he did in Seattle, and I think that's pretty likely. He's not worth that contract, of course, but he is a good offensive player entering his athletic prime, and Van Gundy may look to feature him a little more this year. I'm tempted to say that their success will also hinge on Jameer Nelson's growing up and into his role as a confident floor leader, but I've thought that the last few years too, and I'm bored with it. I like Courtney Lee, although he's a stretch to contribute this season, and Tony Battie might still be solid, and Adonal Foyle, is, well, a poet.

Washington Wizards:
The internet's favorite team (and the league's best covered locker room) is up for another frustrating, injury-cursed season in 08-09, but you just can't give up hope that Agent Zero gets his body right again, because he's just too much fun on the court. That said, the Wizards have proven themselves to be a playoff caliber team without him, and I think they repeat that feat this year even without the much improved (but injured) Brendan Haywood clogging the lane. Etan Thomas will be back and in shape this year, and he'll soak up some minutes, but how good this team can be will depend on the consistency of production from youngster Dre Blatche, who will apparently see time at the center this year. He could use some bulking up, sure, but he's a talented young player in a good atmosphere, and he may use this opportunity to break in and establish himself right now. Caron Butler stepped way up last year, and that was no fluke; the super consistent Antawn Jamison will keep providing solid minutes on both ends. The great thing about Jamison is the way he scores; watch him for a quarter or two, and you'll probably catch him squirting up a strange seeming shot or three that just finds the net on its own. DeShawn "Mr. Fifty" Stevenson and Antonio Daniels round out the starting lineup, but their depth is really hurt by their injuries, and by the loss of Roger Mason. Nick Young will have to improve his production this season for this team's second unit to stay productive. Hustle back, Hibachi.