NBA Previews: Eastern Conference, Central Division

Chicago Bulls:
Derrick Rose scored thirty points in a preseason comeback against Dallas last week, and it changed the way I'll watch the Bulls this year. He did the majority of his work in that game in the 4th quarter, with a series of explosive drives, nice finishes, and floaters just outside the paint (watch that here). He has shown flashes, already, of being an all-star caliber player, and in my haste to defend my now fragile heart from disappointment, I've been reminding myself daily that point guards, even the best of them, take time to develop. I thought about Deron Williams' rookie season, and how he seemed to undulate between decent and lost on the floor, and how he found his game in his second season, and how patience would be key in watching Rose and the Bulls struggle to find an identity. But you know what? Forget it. Rose will make some mistakes, sure, but he'll also make some grown men look foolish out there, because he's a dazzling NBA talent right now. I've been whining about the fact that this will be (essentially) our tenth straight rebuilding year, but the truth is that Rose will eventually be the best player we've had in the post Jordan era, our first A.J. all-star, and I get to watch him play all the time. To alleviate any further fears that Rose will be unable to contribute as a rookie and a point guard, here's a quick list of some of the point guards taken with a top five draft pick in the last ten years, and how their rookie years looked on paper.

• Michael Conley (drafted 4th overall, 2007) 9.4 ppg, 4.2 apg, 2.6 rpg
• Deron Williams (drafted 3rd overall, 2005) 15.3 ppg, 8.1 apg, 2.1 rpg
• Chris Paul (drafted 4th overall, 2005) 18.5 ppg, 9.5 apg, 4.5 rpg
  
• Raymond Felton (drafted 5th overall, 2005) 13.4 ppg, 6.6 apg, 3.2 rpg
• Shaun Livingston (drafted 4th overall, 2004) 7.4 ppg, 4.8 apg, 3.1 rpg
• Devin Harris (drafted 5th overall, 2004) 10 ppg, 3.7 apg, 2.2 rpg
• Jay Williams (drafted 2nd overall, 2002) 9.5 ppg, 4.7 apg, 2.6 rpg
• Baron Davis (drafted 3rd overall, 1999) 17.1 ppg, 7.2 apg, 4.1 rpg
• Mike Bibby (drafted 2nd overall, 1998) 16.6 ppg, 6.2 apg, 3.3 rpg

I know those numbers (points, rebounds, assists) are a clunky way of measuring efficiency in this league because I'm a fan of the coming numbers revolution in basketball, but as a crude measure, they'll do for today. Rose is better right now than the rookie versions of Conley, Livingston, Felton, Harris, and Jay Williams, and I'd only hesitate to put him above Bibby because Bibby was a year older. I'd expect numbers similar to Deron Williams (who didn't struggle nearly as much I remembered, apparently) although I'm not sure the Bulls lend themselves to assist opportunites the way the Jazz of 05-06 did. Regardless, Rose will astound often this year, and we've lacked that player all throughout the Paxson era.
As for the rest of the Bulls, I'm high on Noah, Ty Thomas, Ben Gordon, and Luol Deng, and low on Nocioni and Drew Gooden (neither of whom understand their own skills), and through the basement on Larry Hughes. I've been a Thabo supporter in the past, but he's turning into a bit of a chucker as well, which doesn't play to his skills (defense and...defense?), and Hinrich, well...that's tough. On this page, you'll see the experts at ESPN call him "the league's most underrated" point guard, and that was only last year. It's hard to imagine his skills eroding that quickly and inexplicably, so the problem has to be mental, right? A change of scenery might be best at this point. The jury is still out on Vinny from Black, who got off to a bad start with me just by not being Mike D'Antoni. Okay, yeah, I've got the Bulls in at the tenth slot in the East, and missing the playoffs, but secretly? You know that I think they're the 8th seed, which is a fair indication of how far we fell last year. This time last year, I had them in for a conservative 50 win season.

Cleveland Cavaliers:
Lebron James believes this is the best team assembled during his time in Cleveland, and I'm inclined to agree, but how much is that saying, really? The Mike Brown Cavs have been, when James is off the floor, one of (if not the most) unwatchable team in the league. Thankfully, James hardly ever sits down, and that rarely seems to affect him. No doubt about it: this will be a ridiculous Lebron James year, one in which he will clearly be the game's most dominant force. It's hard to bet against that, but I've got them at 4, so I guess I did to some extent. Ilgauskas has been a nice piece for them for a while, but he's got a lot of mileage on a pretty ridiculous frame, and I'm not convinced he matches last year's production. I like Varejao as a good team's third big men, so that checks out okay, but Wallace is a millstone at the power forward, both on your payroll and your offensive efficiency. I loved Detroit's Ben Wallace for being so great despite being so flawed, but it was clear in Chicago that he isn't that player anymore, no matter what Chauncey Billups says. The Cavs appear to be sky-high on Darnell Jackson, but I doubt he'll be ready to step in and play big minutes in his rookie season. Pavlovic and West are absolutely average at the two, and Daniel Gibson will drive you nuts with his inconsistency, but all those players would benefit from more open floor basketball. Enter Mo Williams, the Cavs fancy new point guard, who is the only thing that makes this team better than the previous incarnations. Williams is a gunner, but he shouldn't have any problems deferring to James, who will do the majority of the playmaking on this team anyway, and he gives the Cavs something critical: a player who can beat his man on the perimeter. James hasn't played with a single of those on the NBA level, and Mo's ability to unsettle defenses and cause some havoc with the ball will allow Lebron to catch the ball on the move occasionally, without the defense set, and that should do wonders for his ability to get clean looks moving towards the hoop. This is a really, really mediocre team, above average at only 2 positions (apologies to an aging big Z), that might still end up in the finals, and that right there is the terrifying skill of Lebron James.

Detroit Pistons:
I've got the relatively uninteresting Pistons holding steady at number two in the east. I flirted briefly and awkwardly with the idea of moving them into the first slot, but mostly on the hunch that Boston fails to stay healthy for a full season. In the end, it seemed like a silly thing to guess at, since Detroit houses its own fair share of aging veterans. The Pistons return with the same core for the new season that failed to reach the Finals in the last few go rounds, despite plenty of speculation that GM Joe Dumars would finally blow this thing up. He didn't, and this was probably a wise move, since this team still harbors legitimate title dreams. The best part of having such a competent GM, though, is that even as the window on this starting unit is closing, the second unit is chock full of talented young players to surround Tayshaun Prince with when the time comes to rebuild. Rare is the team that can reload for the future without sinking into the lottery for a couple years, but early indications seem to suggest that the Pistons are that team. Keep an eye on Stuckey and Maxiell in particular. I think moving McDyess back to the bench in favor of Amir Johnson will pay dividends for this team, and I also expect this team to benefit from the fresh blood infusion of new head coach Michael Curry, even though I'm inclined to agree with Kelly Dwyer about Flip Saunders. Regardless, as long as things are going well, this is a team with good chemistry and talented players, and if they roll at the right time, it's easy to imagine this team back in the finals.

Indiana Pacers:
I'd always held a hope in my heart that TJ Ford would get dealt to Phoenix (this was, of course, before Phoenix got ruined) while Nash was still there, and maybe pick up or pointer or two, while becoming the future point guard of the NBA's premier run n' fun team. Obviously, Ford is not Steve Nash, nor will he ever be, but his blazing speed and creativity would have made him an appealing (and, because of his injury history, affordable) option to keep Marion and Amare in the open court through 2012 or so. Obviously, that isn't happening, but Jim O'Brien's first-to-120-wins gameplan could be the next best thing for Ford fans. Ford's only real strengths are his ability to penetrate, and his ability to push the ball and create fast breaks, and this team's many three point chuckers should benefit from that, either on fades on the break or on drive and kick sets in the halfcourt. Troy Murphy, particularly, is a pretty one dimensional player offensively who could see an increased role as a floor spacer. If Danny Granger can continue to improve, and Mike Dunleavy Jr. can repeat last year's "maybe I'm not such a huge bust after all" performance, this team could make a surprise run at the playoffs. Unfortunately for my neighbors to the east, I'm not sure how likely those things are. I suspect Granger has peaked, or pulled close to it, and while he may not be an all-star talent, a versatile scorer and above average defender is nothing to turn your nose up at. I hope I'm wrong, and his ceiling is still a ways up, but time's gonna have to tell on that one. Jarret Jack will make a solid back-up for the injury-prone Ford, and I've heard word that Marquis Daniels showed up to camp with a jumper this year, which would make him a serviceable player. I like the finally post-brawl Pacers in spite of their parts, really, though they're a long shot to make any noise in the east.

Milwaukee Bucks:
When Scott Skiles is back in the United Center for the Bulls home opener, I'm going to feel a little nostalgic. Yeah, the team tuned him out, and he jerked the young guys around more than was fair or effective, but he brought a defensive attitude to those Bulls' teams that had them among the league's most efficient stoppers. In Milwaukee, Skiles will start and end his game plan with defense again, but I'm not sure he'll have much success with his current roster. While the Bucks boast a few nice pieces, they also start three terrible defenders: Redd, Ridnour, and Villanueva. Jefferson can be an above average defender when motivated, and I suspect the same is true of Bogut, but even a motivated Ridnour isn't stopping many of this league's starting point guards, and Michael Redd tends to play soft against opposing scorers, even though he has the size to (theoretically) match up. Skiles could surprise again, of course, and prove that defense, even on the NBA level, is a matter of effort and focus, but I doubt that's what we'll see from this Bucks squad. On offense, I expect to Bogut to improve, and Villanueva to contribute from all over, and Michael Redd to fling at a decent percentage, but Richard Jefferson could be unhappy with his role. He played third fiddle to Carter and Kidd in Jersey like a good soldier, but this team has a lot of guys who want their shots, and none of them are appreciably more talented than RJ. I expect this team to lose a bunch this year, and maybe swing a few deals to put together a more complementary team. In the meantime, I know I'm not alone when I call for guaranteed minutes for last year's late-season surprise Ramon Sessions, at least to see what the youngster is capable of in the long haul.