NBA Preview: Western Conference, Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors:
I had a scooter, a Honda Elite 80, and I loved that little guy, so I understand what happened to Monta Ellis. These headlines, however, have to be some of the funniest in recent NBA memory, even if the fallout is unfortunate. Without the speedy and high-flying Ellis (and departed free agent Baron Davis), Golden State is extremely thin at point guard, which isn't going to make Don Nelson happy once things get rolling. He's already admitted he doesn't much care for the youth movement, or this young roster in particular, and that could be a problem as the year rolls on. I was surprised to this week that he agreed to an extension, but he has earned it, whether you like his goofy lineup choices or his shoot first offensive schemes or not. Under Nelson, Baron Davis turned out two career seasons, as did left-for-dead Stephen Jackson, who has recovered nicely from numerous incidents in Indiana. Among the players who will suffer from the extended stay are Andris Biedrins and Ronny Turiaf, both of which would benefit from a more traditional lineup approach. Biedrins in particular could use some more time on the floor, where's he's improved consistently over the course of his career. I expect Stephen Jackson to slide down to the point guard spot, with Azubuike and Maggette on the wings, and for this team to struggle mightily. Maggette, on the other hand, will celebrate his newfound freedom by averaging career highs across the board. Keep an eye on young Brandan Wright, who could break in this year, and watch for the last chance of Marcus Williams, who can't afford to let this opportunity pass him by. I'd like to see this team play well this year, but I don't think it's gonna happen.

Los Angeles Clippers:
The Clippers are a strange team; not rebuilding, filled with veterans, very few role players or dirty workers, probably not making the playoffs--this is a bad combination in the NBA. I could be wrong, though, at least about the playoff thing, because if Baron Davis (graceful, charming, a little chubby sometimes) and Marcus Camby can stay healthy, and energize their teammates into playing over their heads on defense, then this team probably threatens to sneak in as the eight seed. The problem is, that last sentence sounded ridiculous even as I wrote it. Camby has averaged 58 games a year over the course of his career, and Baron Davis is only a little better at 67 games a year. The good news is that last year was a career year (in terms of health) for both players, when they combined to miss only 3 games between them. If they do go down for a stretch, though, it exposes this team's biggest weakness, which is its stunning lack of depth. Long forgotten Jason Hart will back up Davis, while shoot first, shoot later retreads Ricky Davis and Tim Thomas will get significant minutes for a team that will already struggle to find shots for all the principals. Besides Davis and Camby, who both consider themselves scorers, the talented and efficient Chris Kaman needs touches, and Cuttino Mobley is a little one dimensional (in favor of shooting, predictably) too. The team's primary young talent, rookie Eric Gordon is, well...I'll let David Thorpe tell it:

The Clippers will utilize this scoring dynamo off the bench. He looks similar to Ben Gordon, not just in size and position but in how he can impact games. While he often looks to shoot -- he is far from knowledgeable about the term "good shot" -- it is his slashing talent that could earn him a future Sixth Man award. He is tough to stay in front of, and has the strength to finish at the rim among bigs and contact.

Sigh. Sounds fun, really, on a different team, but this team is a bad home for this particular skill set. The Clippers might outscore some teams on some nights, but they won't out-work or out-hustle anybody, and that's the recipe for a losing record.

Los Angeles Lakers:
It's hard to root for a team that just manufactures drama on a national scale the way the Lakers do, but the recent Lamar Odom jabber won't affect this team's season aspirations in any significant way. This Lakers team is primed for another deep playoff run, and along the way they'll get to sort out some issues, and one of those is Odom. Most other teams would kill for a problem as simple as how to get more production from such a talented player in an already stacked lineup, but, well, this is LA, and these are the Lakers. The other one I'm sick of talking about is the Gasol/Bynum co-existence question, which will just have to sort itself out. I imagine it will, although Gasol's production may drop off a bit in the meantime, which will have more to do with sharing shots than with decreased efficiency. Kobe returns from the gold medal run with an awful lot of mileage on his legs in the last year, so hopefully Phil Jackson will convince him to limit himself a little, to scale back his involvement on offense a titch, and save a little something for spring. Cutting his minutes would certainly help, but in the thick of the season it's hard for competitors like Phil and Kobe to keep that perspective. Jordan Farmar gets a year older, but he'll split time with Derek Fisher, who is unfortunately also a year older. The Machine, though he's a (highly) questionable decision maker, will provide some scoring and grit off the bench, and Luke Walton is a useful player in spurts, but I expect Trevor Ariza to rise into the rotation, because he's a player who wants to be out there without the ball, and championship-caliber teams need those guys. I've got New Orleans nipping this team in the regular season, but the Lakers will be the toughest out in the western conference playoffs.

Phoenix Suns:
This may be the only team in the league I'm incapable of evaluating without a veneer of objectivity. Since Mike D'Antoni arrived in Phoenix, the Suns have been the joy of basketball personified for me. Unfortunately, those days are gone, as Terry Porter will preach defense and a much slower offensive approach. I suspect he'll even call plays from the sidelines, which actually makes me a little bit sad to think about. He is talking about holding Shaq out on the second night of back to backs, which will benefit both Shaq and Boris Diaw, who will finally need to find a way to be effective with Amare on the court. Diaw was always at his best alongside Marion in the frontcourt, where Diaw could work the high post and control the ball, but that's one of Amare's favorite spots too. Porter will probably make them share, and encourage Amare to work with his back to the basket more often, which sounds as boring as it is. Expect a number of awkward half hooks, a few of which will be followed by thunderous put back dunks. Really, I'm not fit to write any kind of review about this team, because anything I come up with is going to come out like a eulogy. Matt Barnes was a good pick-up, Nash, though he's on the decline, will still be very, very good, and Amare will have an excellent season. I hope Grant Hill stays healthy, I doubt Shaq will, and the Suns win, say, 49 games. I loved him as a player, and then as an analyst, but I loathe him as an executive. Sorry this one doesn't have links, but I'm not ready to watch old highlights yet.

Sacramento Kings:
The Kings finally kicked off the rebuilding process last season by moving Mike Bibby to the Hawks, and then Ron Artest to the Rockets in the off-season. Not much came back from these deals in terms of useful parts, but future flexibility is what this team needed, with the side story being a change in identity. Head coach Reggie Theus came off like an idiot at the beginning of his first year by confusing Kevin Martin for chopped liver:

Theus said one of the first things he's going to do is meet with Ron Artest and Mike Bibby.

"I want to find out from them how we make this work since it's their team," Theus said. "I'm the leader, but it's their team. I remember as a pro myself that I always liked it when the coach came to me to talk about how we can make it work.

"Both players are high-caliber players, and at this point in their careers how much are they willing to sacrifice? But before that, we have to start out with an identity and play a certain style to be successful," Theus said.

It was obvious even then that Martin was the necessary focal point of this team's offense, but Theus appeared to be a less than casual observer of this team. Kevin Martin, for his part, responded by averaging close to 24 points a game while remaining one of the league's most efficient scorers, although his defensive struggles have a been both a personal and team weak spot. Expect improvement out of the hard-working Martin, and hope last year wasn't a fluke for Udrih. John Salmons can put up numbers for a losing team (which this one certainly will be), and place holders Brad Miller and Kenny Thomas will be painfully average. This team should look much different by next year's tip-off, so for now, just enjoy that funky-dope jumper, and keep a close on Udrih for slippage.