Making predictions on basketball, can, on the surface, feel like gambling. You guess at a number of wins based on past returns, and potential improvements, you make some safe picks, pick a few longshots, and let 'em run. Of course it's more complicated than that, but it could feel like gambling if somebody just asked you on the street.
It can also feel like a science, with the theories, and then the experiments, and then the analysis, but I'm out of my league there. It's been a while since I took any kind of science class, but aren't theories already a little more refined than educated guesses? And theoretically (ha), theories can become laws, right? Your predictions sure aren't physical laws as I understand them, because even if you are exactly right, you didn't learn anything concrete that will guarantee correctness on all future predictions. If any of that is true, then predictions as theories doesn't really work either.
Making predictions has always felt, to me at least, more like writing fiction than anything else. The characters are real, and it's probabilistic, to some degree, but it's a fiction nonetheless, because you had to write a little story, a story that seemed likely to you, about what might happen. And if those things happen as you imagined them, then it may not seem like fiction, but it becomes really obvious when you've made a really poor prediction. You imagined a series of events that never happened, and sometimes, at least in my case, in a very detailed way. Conversations that never happened, gut-checks that never happened, motivation that was never felt, and friendships or bonds that were never forged. That may seem a little personal for basketball predictions, but who saw Avery Johnson's firing as Mav's head coach coming? He failed, as I understand it, to earn the trust of those players and his owner, and that's a personal thing (and, also, a common thing). But we try to predict these things anyway, because, well, it's a blast. If you love writing stories, how could you not love making sports predictions? The level of nuance you can choose to include is limitless, and the characters are strange and compelling, and then you get to watch it all play out. On top of the joy of imagination exercised, you also get to be right sometimes, and who doesn't love 'I told you so's? These are not too terribly detailed, but there are a lot of them, and I think they go a little ways towards explaining my predictions.
We'll start like the sun.
Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics:
I have Boston finishing first in the East again this season because I don't think the drop-off of the older veterans will exceed the improvement of the quality youth. Rajon Rondo was good last year in all the ways he needed to be, and I expect him to take another step forward this year. KG is a candidate for drop-off or injury, but I think he's got at least one more season like last year in him, and his low (for him) rebounding rates will be made up for by the continued development of Kendrick Perkins. I think Jesus Shuttlesworth They'll miss Posey in the locker room, but loud alien Sam Cassell will pick up that slack. They'll miss Posey more in the post-season, but that's none of my business really. We'll cross our playoff bridges some other day. Jesus Shuttlesworth will probably be as good or better than he was last year, but mostly because he struggled so frequently as the third option last year, and with the decline in his athleticism. He's a smart player, though, and he wants to win, so I think he makes the right adjustments this year to be a versatile role player and third scorer. And, just like last year, Rondo will be more important to the team's success, regardless of the "big three" hogwash. It would be a nice bonus if Chicago native Tony Allen got the spring in his step back this year after a bad and pretty dumb injury two years ago. Look for quiet improvement from Big Baby Davis, and hopefully a little more run from Leon Powe. Thus far, I do not like Bill Walker, who seems a bit of a jerk. Also, if you're a basketball nerd or a Celtics fan, this is great. I recommend Swear to God, which is a classic.
New Jersey Nets:
I've got this team slotted at 14th in the East, with maybe 25 wins, but it's just hard to say. There are an awful lot of unknowns on this team, but not enough talent. How good is The Chairman? How many future all-stars get traded after their rookie year? Will Vince Carter stay healthy and/or care? Can Bobby Simmons be the player he was with the Clippers a few years back? I was high on him when the Bucks gave him that last contract, and he played me (and them) for a fool by not meshing one bit with a bad Bucks team. How good can Devin Harris be when he's the boss on the floor? Is Brook Lopez a starting caliber center? I think the Nets are going to be terrible, but I'm still going to watch this team, because that's a lot of questions for one paragraph. I hope Sean "Area 51" Williams gets a little burn this year, and the Stro-show has always been a household favorite, no matter how NBA irrelevant he's been. My two predictions I'm sure of? High Socks All-Star Keith Van Horn never plays another basketball game, and I'll watch this video three more times before opening day.
New York Knicks:
As a Bulls fan, I've got a lot to thank the Isaiah-era Knicks for; enough that somebody's got a blog named for it, with some excellent Bulls chatter besides. But this is a new era, a Donnie Walsh-y era, and these guys managed to get us back for a few years of trade muggings by stealing the coach we needed out from under us. Yep, Mike D'antoni is the Knicks coach now, and he'll try to work his offensive magic on a team with unwanted (former) Bulls back-up point guard Chris Duhon as his starter. I've seen an awful lot of Duhon, and it wasn't pretty. I don't want to bash him, really, he was mostly serviceable, but he'll struggle to run this team, or shoot well enough to demand even a fraction of the attention Steve Nash required defensively, which was a key factor in that beautiful (now dead) Pheonix offense. What you can get out of Marbury is anybody's guess, but I'm personally inclined to agree with Henry Abbott. Jamal Crawford has struggled in the preseason despite being the most logical beneficiary of the run/gun style, and Zach Randolph is, well, still Zach Randolph. His numbers should improve, maybe dramatically, but he won't help your team win. One upside of the D'Antoni regime is that the cream should rise to the top, primarily because he didn't bring these guys in, and he hasn't promised them anything in the way of minutes or roles. If that holds true, David Lee fans can finally sleep easier, knowing that he'll finally get a chance to showcase the athleticism and work ethic that should have distinguished him in the Thomas era. Hopefully Lee gets run at the 5, because Eddy "Don't let me drive to my donut hand side" Curry and Jerome "obvious buffet joke" James may be the saddest center tandem in the league. I'm keeping an interested eye on Danilo Galinari, and maybe you should too, if only he could get healthy.
Philadelphia 76ers:
As this year's crush team in the east, Philly cruised all the way up to the third seed in the East for me, but that could be 80% wishful thinking. This team could be an absolute blast to watch, something akin to the last few Golden State incarnations. Elton Brand becomes the first option in the halfcourt, and the excellent defensive rebounder running teams need to start the break. Andre Miller should be in his element pushing the ball, and the high expectations for this team eliminates fears of an unmotivated season filled with conditioning problems. Another year of development for Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams is nothing to sneer at, and if Haitian sensation Sam Dalembert (good guy alert, remote control car alert) can live up to the standards of an excellent 07-08 season, then I love this team, and that's before mentioning swing star Andre Iguodala. Personally, I'm inclined to believe Iggy has peaked already, but plenty of smart people would disagree with me about that, so we'll just have to see. Don't get me wrong, I like his game now: he knows how to use his athleticism in the open floor, and he's a great defender for a running team, because he's got the quickness and tenacity to force turnovers and affect another team's game plan. Plus, this was pretty nice. His only real weakness, unfortunately, is the same as the rest of his team's: inconsistent outside shooting. This team is one deadline deal away from contender status, as long as they can find a shooter to stretch the floor. This team may have bumped now depressing Phoenix from pole position in my League Pass hierarchy, and we'll have to see if they can hold that interest. Here's hoping.
Toronto Raptors:
Good gravy, does that second unit look terrible. I hadn't thought about it until I read this (via truehoop), but it cost Toronto the 4th seed in my rankings. Ukic, Adams, Humphries, Bargnani...the problem is they're all potentially the problem. Still, I've got them at 5, because that's how much I'm looking forward to a full season of Jose Calderon: starter. I loved the Jermaine O'Neal trade for this team, and for Chris-Bosh in particular, who's also coming off a great Olympic run. Big year out of him, I'd wager, with O'Neal sharing some of the abuse, and doing a little of the banging Bargs wouldn't do. If JO gets hurt (okay, when he gets hurt), you're back where you started, but maybe Andrea has improved, like this preseason seems to show, and you weather the storm. I love Jamario Moon (who doesn't?), but his defensive prowess and athleticism are balanced by his limited offensive game, and ultimately what you have is a solid starter. The lesser Parker sibling probably wouldn't start for most teams, but he works hard, and he hits open shots, and this team needs him (and Kapono) to spread the floor for Bosh, and to give Calderon some kickout options off penetration. JO isn't the player he was 4 or 5 years ago, but he doesn't need to be. Goodnight Moon.
Saturday we'll take on the Central Division, and our (admitted) Bully bias.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment