NBA Preview: Western Conference, Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks:
Rick Carlisle is in as head coach this season, which is a bit of a head scratcher. The knocks on Avery Johnson were his lack of communication with players (seemingly everyone said as much), his inability to loosen the reins on the offense (even after the Jason Kidd acquisition), and his inability to get along with owner Mark Cuban. Avery did a good job for two years with a very good team, but his team had clearly tuned him out by the time he was fired. The head-scratching part is that Carlisle has a reputation for not wanting much in the way of player input, and for meticulously controlled offenses. Hmm. However, things seem to be going well so far, so that could all be bunk. Regardless, chemistry will be better this year, without Avery and a looming and prolonged Kidd/Harris swap distracting, and this team still has much of the talent that took them to the finals in '05. Unfortunately, that talent is getting old, and that aforementioned trade didn't help that one bit. Personally, I'm not sure Kidd has much left in the tank, nor do I think he's a better point guard than Harris at this point in their relative careers. On the other hand, a change in style couldn't hurt this team: Josh Howards, he of the never-ending minor controversies, could really benefit from a looser, faster offensive approach, and Dirk was a happier and better player when he was getting off a few open threes a game trailing on the fast break, so both of the other top talents should be on board to run some. Kidd can still run a fast break, so look to see this team push the ball off rebounds, and maybe even off makes in the first half. I love the Stackman's toughness, and Jason Terry is a dirty little punk (in a goodish way), and Brandon Bass could be the next David West (slow, steady development, good work ethic, above-average athleticism) so this team still has some gritty/tough role players, and that will probably all add up to a decent season. sadly, the window on this team is probably already closed, because I don't think they match up well with any of the new elite teams in the west (Utah, New Orleans, Lakers), nor am I sure they can beat San Antonio or Phoenix in a series. The Mavs are the new poster-children for also-rans.

Houston Rockets:
I know how excited everyone is over the Rockets this year, and believe me, I want to join in, I really do. Tracy McGrady has been a personal favorite since this happened, probably because I was at home watching basketball this night (skip ahead to about 2:10), and then again for this game. I watched that last game to the very end, and I've never been better rewarded by a regular season sporting event. Is Tracy a flawed player? Yes, of course, sometimes painfully so, but his transition from prima donna scorer to permanent underdog has endeared him to me like no amount of success could have. I've watched this Rockets team very closely in the T-Mac era, and I agree that this is the best team they've had in recent years, but I have some major concerns about the structure of this team with new addition Ron Artest. Was it a necessary (two minutes in) move? Maybe. I like this take, which makes a good bit of sense. Ron's a phenomenal talent, and though his defense slipped in Sacramento, I think he'll be motivated to prove he's an all-league defender again. His effort notwithstanding, this team still has a problem on defense with Ron on the floor, and it's this: Shane Battier is too good for this team. He's a more reliable spot-up shooter, an equally excellent defender, and he knows and understands his role perfectly. The Rockets are a much better team with Battier on the floor than not, and you can't afford to reduce his minutes. Ron's not going to sit the majority of games either, obviously, and since they're both too big and handle-less to slide down to the two, the only option is to play one of them (probably Ron-Ron) at the power forward spot for stretches. I've no doubt Artest can lock down many of the league's fours when determined, but that's not the problem. Who's going to rebound? Battier and Artest are both average rebounders for their position (small forward), but at the four, either would be well below average. With injury-prone Yao as the only legit center on the Houston roster, this team could already be undersized on many nights, and even though all those undersized fours are good soldiers on the glass (I'm looking at you, Carluis Scolandry, Chuck Wagon), this team, which was a great defensive team again last season, gives up too much size in the frontcourt. Limiting second chance baskets is such a huge part of great defenses, and this new Rockets roster may have that as a primary weakness. Think I've ragged on the Artest acquisition enough? Then avert your eyes, because we should talk about the offense. Ron Artest, for all his many gifts, is not an efficient offensive player. For his career, he's a 42% shooter from the field, and a 33% shooter from beyond the arc, which hasn't prevented him from taking over 200 long bombs a year for each of his last five full seasons. These numbers are pretty dismal for a player who fancies himself a scorer but doesn't get to the free throw line with the regularity of an Iverson type. And yes, he averaged 20 points per game last year with Sacto, but all the numbers mean is that it took him more shots, and more possessions, than almost any other 20 ppg player in the league last season. On a team like Houston, that already has two more efficient scorers, is that type of game going to help or hurt an offense? That's going to depend a great deal on how well Ron adapts his game. If he can make himself a decent spot-up shooter, he's going to be more effective, because the Tracy/Yao line-up creates a lot of open space on the perimeter. But with the ball, dribbling, trying to set people up, Artest will hurt the Rockets. The bright side to all of this is that, if (when) Tracy goes out of a few games, Ron can pick up the slack by being his volume shooter self, which at least gives the Rockets a chance to win on his good nights. The other bright side is that Tracy and Yao seem pleased to have him aboard, and team morale is high. Adelman is going to have to make it work, and he's the league's best bet for that with Artest. The other silver lining for this team is it's exceptional depth. Rafer Alston will be serviceable at the point, and back-up Aaron Brooks could provide some spark. Luther Head has been a useful player for this team in the past, and that front court group is as hard-nosed as they come. A near-definite fifty win team, with a ceiling around sixty, and I'm calling for a (finally) favorable first round match up in the playoffs this year.

Memphis Grizzlies:
I predict this team will be bad this year, and no, thank you but no, I deserve no medal for my bravery. Everyone knows this team will be bad, because they're young (so young), and they rely heavily on the interior defense of Darko Milicic. He's a shot blocker, sure, but not much else. Marc Gasol is your other big man, and though I like his size, and he seems active, he's probably a year or two from being a starter on a decent team. On the wings, Rudy Gay will score and excite, and OJ Mayo will shoot and miss, and shoot and make. He's going to shoot regardless of the outcome, I'm saying, and that kind of confidence should be a blessing on a team that will probably struggle to score enough to win many games, even with former D'Antoni first-mate Marc Iavaroni on the sidelines. The team should make some strides towards unraveling a snaggle of young point guards (Conley, Lowry, Crittenton), but it would really help if one of them could step forward this year, instead of wading around in the mediocrity pool as a group again, wearing floaties and having splash fights. I'm pulling for Lowry, personally, in terms of the on-court play, but I've got money on Crittenton in the splash fight.

New Orleans Hornets:
If you didn't watch much of Chris Paul last year, this may sound controversial, but it's really not: Chris Paul is the best point guard in the NBA. It's not even close, I promise. Steve Nash in 2006 gives him some competition for that title, but not the current version of Canada's favorite son, and not Deron Williams, who I love, and definitely not any of the Billups/Parker/Davis group. Paul runs this team like an all-time great entering his prime, which is exactly what he is. David West should take another small step forward this season (the guy's an offseason worker, no question), and the rest of this team is extremely solid. Chandler is a near all-star, and the perfect complement to Paul on both ends (great lob finisher, great at blocking shots when Paul gambles for a steal), and Peja is the floor spacer every great team needs in it's starting unit. He can carry this team for a quarter at a time if he's hot, and that's a huge asset from a third scorer. I've always loved Mo Pete, and not just because of this shot; if you can make this mix about your fifth best starter, your team is probably alright. James Posey will be great in New Orleans, defensively and as a threat you can't double off of down the stretch, and he's the guy you hate that champioship caliber teams always have. The bench is a little thin, though, for a team this good, with unproven big Hilton Armstrong first off the pine in the frontcourt, and questionable decision maker Mike James backing up Paul. Still, I think this team wins the west this year, I really do, beating out a stacked Lakers squad that will probably still knock these Hornets out of the playoffs.

San Antonio Spurs:
As a Suns fan, the Spurs have done very little over the last five years besides torment me, and win a few championships. Now, though, with this team beginning it's slip out of contention, I'm actually a little sad. I wanted to see the Spurs beaten, every year, on their terms, and that just didn't happen much this decade. I respected these jerks, and I respected them because many of them aren't jerks. You may hate the Tim Duncan face (I certainly do), and you may hate Robert Horry (so very much) and you must hate Bruce Bowen (easily the game's most despicably filthy player in my lifetime), but these guys are not bad guys off the court, and that made the hate a little purer, since it was just basketball. Except for Bowen, maybe, whose incredibly poor sportsmanship transcends even this type of thing, I wouldn't mind having these guys on my team. All that aside, we should talk about where this team is now, and if the end is really as nigh as that obituary makes it seem. The Spurs will still be good this year; really good, probably. Tim Duncan And Tony Parker are more than capable of picking up the scoring slack until Manu comes back (December, they think), and the supporting cast know their roles and buy into Popavich's system. That's a great recipe right there, one that wins a lot of games (I'm guessing a shade above 50), but the problems are post-season oriented. This team doesn't match up well against the new kids on the block (Lakers, Hornets), and I don't think a crafty and experienced roster will be enough to buy that edge back. You may be thinking at this point, "Hey, Nate. That sure sounds like a mix of bullheap and wishful thinking, and maybe you should remember that it's an odd year, and that Tim is still the league's best power forward, and Tony Parker keeps getting better, and Manu will wreck most teams when he's healthy, and shouldn't other teams be worrying about matching up with that? Plus, Popavich! You're terrible at this!" You probably went on, but I'm going to cut you off there, because you might be right. But man, Bruce Bowen sucks, doesn't he?